When stoves replaced the bonfire, cooking times did not actually reduce. Menus (and waistlines) expanded and women ended up cooking all day long to meet the previously unknown need for porridges and sauteed veggies.
When piped water came along, people just started having more luxurious baths, and adding bathrooms to every room.
Growing up I got 4 new outfits a year, tied to my birthday and important festivals. This involved catching a bus to the nearest market town and sifting through at least four shops and evaluating the longevity of each outfit, as it was a high engagement high value purchase. As mass-manufacturing dropped the price of clothes, instead of sticking to this limit of four and thereby saving money and energy, I immediately upped my consumption. Heck, you can get a new outfit in under 30 minutes on Myntra.
Maybe it is the cynical marketer in me, but as soon as something gets simplified by technology, humans find ways to complicate it by wanting more, and with non-essential bells and whistles.
Most of us are in a constant pursuit to make ourselves feel special. Today let me look at some big trends and what that means to businesses.
Birth rates are falling – Labubus to the rescue!
In 1950 the average woman would have five kids. By 2050, it is expected to drop below 2.1 which is the replacement level. The fall is steeper in some countries and less sharp in say, Africa, but it is a steady decline. You can see the detailed trends on population decline in this IMF report.
As more people choose not to have kids, or have lesser kids, they have more money and emotions to invest in toys such as collectibles. Enter the Labubu! This grinning doll is minting money for its multi-billion dollar parent company, Pop Mart, and is popular as a bag charm. This week they’ve announced a mini version to be used on phones. It is now a cultural phenomenon with videos galore on Instagram using them, including Birdsong (disclosure: an all-teen creative team, which includes Junior Paul Writer who owns the Labubus made the video.) Dolls, plushies, action figures, bag charms – all things which used to be associated with early childhood are now being consumed well into old age. And no, before you ask, I do not own the Jellycat that sits in the bedroom – that’s just to keep it safe from the dog!
Are you a cat or dog person?
If you think that every other person now has a pet, you’d be right. An online survey of 20,000 people in 20 countries including India conducted by Mars puts the global pet population at 1 billion and rising, and 56% of people as pet parents. More than a third of pet owners consider the pet the most important thing in their lives. The research does not say whether they chose the pet over their child or significant other. We humans are social – as families get smaller and isolation becomes a problem, we are reaching out to the animal kingdom for unconditional love (dogs) and entertainment (cats). Businesses are not yet reflecting this reality – whether it be allowing pets inside stores, providing insurance, or having entertainment spaces for them.
The Rise of Me
Health and well-being spends are seen as essential – along with grocery and household cleaning products – as per a 2022 survey by Accenture of 11,000 people across 16 countries. Everyone intended to spend more on health and fitness. Around a third named self-care as an area for investment. 30 years ago, Lakme and Pond’s were the big-spending skincare brands that agencies lusted for. My dad used practically one brand of soap his entire life. Today the shelves jostle with products to take care of every tiny part of yourself – from eye-lash growth serum to cuticle oil for your tippy toes.
Businesses need to recognise that for many of their customers, self-care is no longer optional, but a necessity. Move over mini-bars. The beauty mini-fridge is what your hotel room needs! The Ritz-Carlton Los Angeles is rolling out in-room beauty routines. As per their press release, The Beauty Fridge—which amounts to $142 worth of product—features a complete ritual: a Travel Kit with Hinoki Cleanser, Lipid Serum, and Hyvia Moisturizer, along with Epicutis Lipid Recovery and eye masks. Chilled cryotherapy globes by Epicutis are also included and intended for take-home use.
If you don’t know what these things are, you should get your organisation to pay for a little “research”. Mine sadly declined to buy me a sample, let alone fly me to Los Angeles to test the product in person.
Rethink the World
In all the hoopla about AI, we should not lose track of the big trends. These are not incremental changes. Each one of these trends is shaping how we want to live.
We ought to be doing scenario planning for each of our customer demographics.
– What would they want if they have no kids/grandkids?
– What would they want if they are pet parents?
– What would they want if their daily self-care routine comprises of 21 products and requires 2 hours?
And on the flip side, what do I not need in each of these scenarios?
What to do when machines do everything
Malcolm Frank, one of the authors of a book with the above title, talked about this at Paul Writer’s Futurist Business Conclave in 2017. It continues to be a great read and will give you some clues of how to deal with this situation.
Beyond pampering ourselves and our pets, of course.
Have a great week ahead!
