Arjun Tendulkar (son of the famous cricketer) is getting married to Saniya Chandhok (she’s a nepo baby too – read to find out more) today! Don’t worry dahlings, this is not about their outfits, but about how their conspicuous consumption came to be possible.
Before 1992 and liberalization in India, ice-cream was expensive, flavours were limited and formats were cup, stick and cone. In 1993, along came Ravi Ghai, grandpa of Saniya to launch Baskin-Robbins in India. 31 flavours! Such choice!
Before 1992 and liberalization in India, ice-cream was expensive, flavours were limited and formats were cup, stick and cone. In 1993, along came Ravi Ghai, grandpa of Saniya to launch Baskin-Robbins in India. 31 flavours! Such choice!
VUCA might send us back to orange sticks and vanilla cups
VUCA stands for an environment that is Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous. Since the 80s the term pops up every time there is a crisis, but this time seems like the most unpredictable, the biggest, the scariest VUCA of all time.
Here’s what is making me think this:
1. The Middle East conflict which impacts oil prices, shipping, tourism and of course human lives. This on top of existing conflict zones like Ukraine and Gaza.
2. AI impacts skills, jobs, water, electricity consumption. AI will also create new products and categories that will displace legacy offerings, at speed. I can no longer tell you to ‘google vuca” but have to say “ask your favourite LLM about vuca”.
3. The demise or decline of global institutions that impact world stability and predictability in areas like trade, security, healthcare, refugee management, and international borders just to name a few.
Here’s what is making me think this:
1. The Middle East conflict which impacts oil prices, shipping, tourism and of course human lives. This on top of existing conflict zones like Ukraine and Gaza.
2. AI impacts skills, jobs, water, electricity consumption. AI will also create new products and categories that will displace legacy offerings, at speed. I can no longer tell you to ‘google vuca” but have to say “ask your favourite LLM about vuca”.
3. The demise or decline of global institutions that impact world stability and predictability in areas like trade, security, healthcare, refugee management, and international borders just to name a few.
What can businesses do?
A simple poll I ran yesterday shows that roughly half are factoring in the Middle East conflict into their marketing plans for the quarter. This is good but what exactly are they going to manage?
Pricing cuts? Supply chain disruptions? AI chatbots? Redundancy of humans? Perfect information? Power outages? Tariffs? Security?
That’s a lot to plan for at short notice. They are interlinked, unpredictable and expensive changes.
Companies can be very clever. But they are are going to realize that they need government help to navigate these choppy waters.
Or, like the British East India Company are we once more at the crossroads when traders drive political change?
Pricing cuts? Supply chain disruptions? AI chatbots? Redundancy of humans? Perfect information? Power outages? Tariffs? Security?
That’s a lot to plan for at short notice. They are interlinked, unpredictable and expensive changes.
Companies can be very clever. But they are are going to realize that they need government help to navigate these choppy waters.
Or, like the British East India Company are we once more at the crossroads when traders drive political change?
The Middle Powers
In January Mark Carney, the PM of Canada, became a bit of a celebrity by talking about the “middle powers” at WEF. He is now on a tour of India followed by Australia trying to cobble together partnerships with these middle powers. Given the scale of change, businesses need government support to navigate it.
For example, should India finally join the CPTPP? This is a major free trade agreement between 12 economies—Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, and the UK—representing nearly 15% of global GDP. It would give us preferential access to these juicy markets.
India has long resisted exposing its farmers to competition and that would be a sticking point here too. But as James Crabtree and Jayant Sinha argue in this Foreign Affairs article, that can be worked out.
Maybe, like in 1992, we have no choice but to expose Amul to Baskin Robbins. The choice isn’t as simple as switching back to kulfi and driving Ambassadors, though the Arjuns and Saniyas of the world would find that a difficult adjustment.
In 1987, the US blocked the sale of the Cray supercomputer to India fearing that it could be used for defense. That led to India’s homegrown successful computing project.
At present the US has imposed restrictions on sourcing the highest end AI chips on almost all countries, including India. Will we stay dependent on foreign tech? Gmail? Whatsapp? More VUCA!
For example, should India finally join the CPTPP? This is a major free trade agreement between 12 economies—Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, and the UK—representing nearly 15% of global GDP. It would give us preferential access to these juicy markets.
India has long resisted exposing its farmers to competition and that would be a sticking point here too. But as James Crabtree and Jayant Sinha argue in this Foreign Affairs article, that can be worked out.
Maybe, like in 1992, we have no choice but to expose Amul to Baskin Robbins. The choice isn’t as simple as switching back to kulfi and driving Ambassadors, though the Arjuns and Saniyas of the world would find that a difficult adjustment.
In 1987, the US blocked the sale of the Cray supercomputer to India fearing that it could be used for defense. That led to India’s homegrown successful computing project.
At present the US has imposed restrictions on sourcing the highest end AI chips on almost all countries, including India. Will we stay dependent on foreign tech? Gmail? Whatsapp? More VUCA!
Trends to Factor in Business
- Rise of nationalism is a world-wide trend which needs to reflect in brands.
- Building self-reliance as individuals and as countries will once more become popular.
- Consumers will try to avoid VUCA and businesses can guide them on the safest ways to do so.
If you research marketing from a century or more ago I think you will find some relevant playbooks 🙂
As for me, I am off to the MMA Growth Dialogues event in Bangalore (is Hebbal even in Bangalore?!) on Friday to learn from others!
Happy Holi to all who enjoy a splash of colour!
As for me, I am off to the MMA Growth Dialogues event in Bangalore (is Hebbal even in Bangalore?!) on Friday to learn from others!
Happy Holi to all who enjoy a splash of colour!
